The CL Draw is a (sorta) mystery

The Champions League group stage is over, so that means we now get to freak out about what an easy road Madrid is getting and that we have to return to Paris for winter match involving Unai Emery and something called Hlebruary. Recently Mr. Chip tweeted out the percentage chances each team had of drawing a particular other team. The results may seem to be standard stuff, but I actually think Mr. Chip, in all his statistical glory, made a few mistakes in his calculations. I base this on empirical data gathered through statistical research. I poured over hundreds of years of Champions League results and it appears that maybe Mr. Chip forgot to carry a one somewhere.

Methodology: I had some chicken molé today for lunch, though it was just leftovers from my wife’s night out last night with the girls where they apparently talked about insurance reimbursements. My wife does spin a pretty good yarn about that, so I can understand how she didn’t get through that much of her meal. Anyway, I ate that and type this up.

Results: It was pretty decent, though a bit dry after being in the fridge overnight. Oh, you mean the Champions League stuff. Right. I put this in a handy graph just like Mr. Chip.


There, I fixed it for you.

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